Role of Expert systems in Decision making

Expert systems have been concerned with applications dealing with medical diagnosis, mineral exploration, and computer configuration, with some efforts relatively successful in achieving results at least as good as human experts. Today, much is being written about these systems and managerial decision-making activities in organizations and the positive impact that they can have in these situations. However, it appears that expert systems could become somewhat of a panacea for some organizational ailments as research, development, and marketing of them continues at a fast pace. What may be forgotten in this technological thrust is the individual decision maker and his/her unique style of decision making which could affect acceptance and use of these systems. Another important consideration is the attitude people have toward computers and computer systems, which along with decision-making styles could certainly affect expert system effectiveness and ultimate success in organizations. This paper provides a discussion of potential problems that could occur regarding individual decision making and attitudes and their relationships to these systems.

An expert system, also known as a knowledge based system, is a computer program that contains the knowledge and analytical skills of one or more human experts, related to a specific subject. This class of program was first developed by researchers in artificial intelligence during the 1960s and 1970s and applied commercially throughout the 1980s.

Advantages and disadvantages

Advantages:

• Provides consistent answers for repetitive decisions, processes and tasks
• Holds and maintains significant levels of information
• Encourages organizations to clarify the logic of their decision-making
• Never "forgets" to ask a question, as a human might

Disadvantages:

• Lacks common sense needed in some decision making
• Cannot make creative responses as human expert would in unusual circumstances
• Domain experts not always able to explain their logic and reasoning
• Errors may occur in the knowledge base, and lead to wrong decisions
• Cannot adapt to changing environments, unless knowledge base is changed

[edit] Types of problems solved by expert systems

Expert systems are most valuable to organizations that have a high-level of know-how experience and expertise that cannot be easily transferred to other members. They are designed to carry the intelligence and information found in the intellect of experts and provide this knowledge to other members of the organization for problem-solving purposes.

Typically, the problems to be solved are of the sort that would normally be tackled by a medical or other professional. Real experts in the problem domain (which will typically be very narrow, for instance "diagnosing skin conditions in human teenagers") are asked to provide "rules of thumb" on how they evaluate the problems, either explicitly with the aid of experienced systems developers, or sometimes implicitly, by getting such experts to evaluate test cases and using computer programs to examine the test data and (in a strictly limited manner) derive rules from that. Generally, expert systems are used for problems for which there is no single "correct" solution which can be encoded in a conventional algorithm — one would not write an expert system to find shortest paths through graphs, or sort data, as there are simply easier ways to do these tasks.

Simple systems use simple true/false logic to evaluate data. more sophisticated systems are capable of performing at least some evaluation, taking into account real-world uncertainties, using such methods as fuzzy logic. Such sophistication is difficult to develop and still highly imperfect.

[edit] Expert Systems Shells or Inference Engine

Shell is a complete development environment for building and maintaining knowledge-based applications. It provides a step-by-step methodology for knowledge engineer that allows the domain experts themselves to be directly involved in structuring and encoding the knowledge. Use of shells reduces developemnt time upto 50%. Many commercial shells are available.

[edit]

ypes of problems solved by expert systems

Expert systems are most valuable to organizations that have a high-level of know-how experience and expertise that cannot be easily transferred to other members. They are designed to carry the intelligence and information found in the intellect of experts and provide this knowledge to other members of the organization for problem-solving purposes.

Typically, the problems to be solved are of the sort that would normally be tackled by a medical or other professional. Real experts in the problem domain (which will typically be very narrow, for instance "diagnosing skin conditions in human teenagers") are asked to provide "rules of thumb" on how they evaluate the problems, either explicitly with the aid of experienced systems developers, or sometimes implicitly, by getting such experts to evaluate test cases and using computer programs to examine the test data and (in a strictly limited manner) derive rules from that. Generally, expert systems are used for problems for which there is no single "correct" solution which can be encoded in a conventional algorithm — one would not write an expert system to find shortest paths through graphs, or sort data, as there are simply easier ways to do these tasks.

Simple systems use simple true/false logic to evaluate data. more sophisticated systems are capable of performing at least some evaluation, taking into account real-world uncertainties, using such methods as fuzzy logic. Such sophistication is difficult to develop and still highly imperfect.

[edit] Expert Systems Shells or Inference Engine

Shell is a complete development environment for building and maintaining knowledge-based applications. It provides a step-by-step methodology for knowledge engineer that allows the domain experts themselves to be directly involved in structuring and encoding the knowledge. Use of shells reduces developemnt time upto 50%. Many commercial shells are available.